{"id":"W1492877851","doi":"10.3386/w20922","title":"New Ideas in Invention","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Guelph; University of Waterloo","funders":"National Institute on Aging","keywords":"Computer science; Epistemology; Mathematical economics; Mathematics; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01021647,0.000677273,0.0009783533,0.004608667,0.002656292,0.008029602,0.0008254159,0.002768595,0.0165076],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0475213,0.0004341334,0.0008065942,0.006147652,0.008171859,0.01370058,0.003680887,0.004596044,0.002077589],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003981682,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002936856,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001952002,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001599809,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9919235,0.003106361,0.0004589212,0.001095854,0.002784427,0.0006308263],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9510418,0.0380539,0.004797683,0.001930006,0.002367201,0.001809355],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001695373,0.0001503103,0.03059819,0.0007582817,0.00007444606,0.0003335076,0.002423903,0.004366761,0.0004108224,0.8448293,0.006071512,0.1098133],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007182164,0.0002195151,0.02500027,0.001093395,0.00007277937,0.0004410521,0.00275244,0.006028655,0.0008971266,0.8424073,0.1209418,0.00007387289],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.2510415,0.05521403,0.1019504,0.04919216,0.001556926,0.00111396,0.001475728,0.0002508375,0.5382045],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9382379,0.01932277,0.02274726,0.002242814,0.0008984887,0.000474346,0.000386827,0.00006002516,0.0156295],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0165076,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05522341,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.8136546966202826,"score_gpt":0.6434232114164262,"score_spread":0.1702314852038563,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}