{"id":"W1496596803","doi":"","title":"Heading into Recession. Business Cycle Report of December 2008","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Austrian Economic Quarterly","topic":"German Economic Analysis & Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Recession; Business cycle; Heading (navigation); Economics; Global recession; Financial crisis; Feeling; Economy; Keynesian economics; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006245069,0.0003354164,0.001136519,0.0006015757,0.0002190568,0.00005431344,0.0004587803,0.000214203,0.001822341],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00007695408,0.0004223186,0.000306973,0.0003008655,0.0002755572,0.0007501012,0.00005392213,0.0001854704,0.004886262],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003811377,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001418414,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005877662,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006015071,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9963961,0.00002919353,0.002226464,0.0007801841,0.00003860684,0.0005294533],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9970443,0.00009453149,0.001581108,0.001021755,0.00005730397,0.0002009524],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001426961,0.0005177239,0.8014495,0.0001549127,0.001211278,0.0002984823,0.01715357,0.005968974,0.0003799661,0.0417921,0.1234516,0.007479148],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.006799199,0.0006394222,0.5792928,0.0001746145,0.0001658735,0.0024501,0.002590221,0.0102013,0.001386703,0.1266743,0.2655489,0.004076473],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9751548,0.0004235947,0.0009096441,0.001099678,0.0008360394,0.0002010058,0.00008022049,0.00006494942,0.02123003],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9922153,0.0001246123,0.0008301653,0.0001085965,0.0003127056,0.00002831281,0.0000735111,0.00005971018,0.006247132],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2221567,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998229,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02812555396134107,"score_gpt":0.2381296148486542,"score_spread":0.2100040608873132,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}