{"id":"W1499568062","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2008.948","title":"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Generalization","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Finance Discussion Paper","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; Random walk; Exchange rate; Economics; Econometrics; Liberian dollar; Bayesian probability; Small open economy; Generalization; Us dollar; Unit root; Bayes estimator; Monetary policy; Monetary economics; Mathematics; Statistics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001233644,0.0001188928,0.0001743277,0.0001188298,0.0001363726,0.00003750857,0.0001316461,0.00005736432,0.002416641],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003504866,0.00009431157,0.00005779809,0.00005660948,0.00006330854,0.000570219,0.00005711093,0.00006192318,0.0005458442],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005686679,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000005468215,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001795456,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001187283,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991522,0.000008121218,0.0003457295,0.0002937499,0.00003244363,0.0001677887],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996355,0.00001226691,0.0001601899,0.0001369601,0.000008654634,0.00004640398],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001299819,0.0003028649,0.7262974,0.00003764031,0.0001627117,0.00003627265,0.005123769,0.001607254,0.00069529,0.1848222,0.07044445,0.01034021],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006829448,0.00003623296,0.3670635,0.00002004227,0.000001844757,0.00004777624,0.00003933079,0.009000387,0.0001733818,0.01305128,0.609616,0.0002673019],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9700898,0.00160036,0.0008264543,0.006749657,0.0007713023,0.0001240157,0.0001947535,0.00002997759,0.01961371],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9778779,0.0026782,0.0004196684,0.001456912,0.0002015843,0.00002478512,0.00007031137,0.00001467484,0.01725597],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5391715,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9984953,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0660692283854814,"score_gpt":0.2568276002608963,"score_spread":0.1907583718754149,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}