{"id":"W1499911862","doi":"","title":"SHORT-TERM FORECAST","year":2002,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting","topic":"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Inflation (cosmology); Term (time); Unemployment; Exchange rate; Quarter (Canadian coin); Unemployment rate; Econometrics; Real gross domestic product; Inflation rate; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics; Interest rate","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007287911,0.0002476869,0.0007227884,0.0004278108,0.0001484311,0.000134434,0.0004912619,0.000101061,0.001126341],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001081179,0.0002862073,0.0003909176,0.00008185341,0.00008424933,0.0008246473,0.0000718892,0.0003180921,0.001134932],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003131964,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001246853,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001049594,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001392379,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973714,0.000014899,0.001762485,0.0003124731,0.00002734379,0.0005113772],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998303,0.00009241417,0.001084519,0.0002720667,0.00002357481,0.000224454],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001182646,0.0003737069,0.5633706,0.0001856349,0.0009254029,0.0002986302,0.004378449,0.001527829,0.00006333826,0.3327473,0.03031662,0.06569426],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.006671028,0.001803907,0.1187898,0.000526006,0.000130437,0.006788715,0.0007054904,0.4509943,0.0004945415,0.347744,0.06193409,0.003417746],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8411849,0.001394819,0.0003985826,0.00049963,0.001710325,0.0001064813,0.00004674649,0.00002191956,0.1546366],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9968764,0.00003991848,0.0009695535,0.0001344961,0.001349006,0.000002911326,0.000002167262,0.00005199923,0.0005735983],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4494664,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.999959,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1041369830460591,"score_gpt":0.2256387848588069,"score_spread":0.1215018018127478,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}