{"id":"W1504249233","doi":"","title":"Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Spot contract; Forward rate; Liberian dollar; Us dollar; Pound (networking); Econometrics; Rationality; Normality; Exchange rate; Financial economics; Forward contract; German; Rational expectations; Futures contract; Interest rate; Monetary economics; Statistics; Finance; Geography; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004263796,0.0004705586,0.0007704279,0.0009451668,0.0002319607,0.00192075,0.0006302107,0.000587602,0.002444554],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01874851,0.0003067834,0.0008786684,0.0006942516,0.001009521,0.002072511,0.0005349623,0.00135075,0.000305026],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006031708,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009174118,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01207513,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004502648,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995265,0.0001618585,0.00004108641,0.0001068399,0.00007943825,0.00008420308],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9930769,0.004981144,0.0010604,0.0003966623,0.0003704329,0.0001145057],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003017917,0.00006291964,0.07543772,0.0001287272,0.0002592045,0.00082101,0.0009830461,0.2492764,0.002988858,0.5413662,0.003665542,0.1247086],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004664689,0.00006862982,0.0484851,0.00004914069,0.0001453493,0.0001345433,0.0005387726,0.6856121,0.001048678,0.2601838,0.003623203,0.00006398021],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7075155,0.001696558,0.266703,0.009807804,0.0001023815,0.00005683365,0.0005733201,0.0001604224,0.01338404],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9834511,0.001013895,0.011985,0.0001407347,0.00018258,0.00001433204,0.0002109887,0.00001832987,0.002983122],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01207513,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0240097,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07914178055589813,"score_gpt":0.2682939822109925,"score_spread":0.1891522016550944,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}