{"id":"W1523034346","doi":"10.3386/w20311","title":"An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for The Midterm Gap","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Econometrics; Econometric analysis; Positive economics; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009956934,0.0004324808,0.0009779283,0.001316105,0.0007332552,0.003370171,0.002347374,0.001946183,0.01047667],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03518252,0.0003408666,0.001632972,0.001533954,0.001193637,0.001981311,0.001635945,0.001828975,0.000486146],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002289065,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001530786,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007017568,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006705578,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9972535,0.001518635,0.0001609098,0.000316782,0.0003832832,0.0003668223],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9450721,0.04771881,0.004108744,0.001548637,0.001053885,0.0004978681],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001302882,0.0005441299,0.2301524,0.0003954364,0.0003964457,0.002072096,0.001691136,0.1328396,0.001208787,0.5702746,0.005372505,0.05374996],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003965821,0.0007026138,0.1490491,0.000108071,0.0003626133,0.0004798178,0.008062536,0.6304005,0.001353928,0.1954502,0.01350536,0.0001287526],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8999637,0.001390431,0.07128555,0.005092712,0.0001163518,0.0002260864,0.001621346,0.0001875392,0.0201162],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9921935,0.0002343783,0.003966675,0.0001673079,0.00007397978,0.00007049728,0.0006533629,0.00001642195,0.002623934],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01047667,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05265796,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.8000235107074108,"score_gpt":0.6637300317347172,"score_spread":0.1362934789726936,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}