{"id":"W1523346252","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2008.927","title":"Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Finance Discussion Paper","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":34,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Business cycle; Variance (accounting); Econometrics; Total factor productivity; Consumption (sociology); Imperfect; Perfect information; Balance of trade; Emerging markets; Demand shock; Monetary economics; Productivity; Macroeconomics; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001527345,0.0002426165,0.0005102105,0.001291004,0.0002877226,0.002217105,0.000496843,0.0009033998,0.002461918],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02040683,0.0002256159,0.000492459,0.002272175,0.001011303,0.005732777,0.0006387615,0.002002786,0.0002808052],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006129693,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004551423,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005612037,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003597137,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997469,0.00007685497,0.00001934873,0.00008216299,0.00005215102,0.00002257875],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9960247,0.001998312,0.0009255906,0.0004558826,0.0004567155,0.0001388155],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001684566,0.00004160236,0.1510416,0.0002228101,0.0001791881,0.0005721056,0.001280033,0.04418372,0.0006939829,0.5441912,0.006559911,0.2508655],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002316432,0.0000569181,0.06181046,0.0001778943,0.00006929915,0.0002827845,0.0005580956,0.1135224,0.0004173208,0.8084311,0.01461802,0.00003253076],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7692968,0.0117908,0.150334,0.03688155,0.0003561041,0.0000351682,0.00117127,0.0002975868,0.02983681],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9857519,0.006259545,0.004490961,0.0007122365,0.0003467504,0.00001308775,0.0003953629,0.00003883967,0.0019912],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005612037,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01115876,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03664452185176507,"score_gpt":0.2454306103231934,"score_spread":0.2087860884714284,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}