{"id":"W1533664696","doi":"10.1177/155862351000500303","title":"The Efficiency of ‘In-Play’ Australian Rules Football Betting Markets","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Sport Finance","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Odds; Football; Economics; Econometrics; Logistic regression; Market efficiency; Yield (engineering); Sports economics; Financial economics; Statistics; Mathematics; Geography; League","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001137812,0.00008929479,0.0002452296,0.0002050913,0.00004622422,0.00004726546,0.0006579584,0.00005451581,0.0001594409],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005935419,0.00007498534,0.0001336479,0.0001130611,0.00008737083,0.0001952544,0.00003535581,0.0003147179,0.00001787322],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003497256,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004498086,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00008877676,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005945054,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985367,0.000001103625,0.001045312,0.0001214271,0.0001264029,0.0001690602],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983072,0.00002916177,0.001294,0.0001518128,0.000186911,0.00003091143],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000626165,0.00009410216,0.8603086,0.0000054472,0.0000399796,0.00005990825,0.0001399834,0.0003427019,0.00007434493,0.1345622,0.0004760017,0.003834029],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003529423,0.00003165796,0.79969,0.00005429642,0.000002507258,0.00005471805,0.00002019863,0.00112823,0.0003706889,0.005419756,0.1927792,0.00009574694],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9921975,0.0004293146,0.00007194371,0.00117363,0.001915508,0.00003920935,0.00002194064,0.000001866713,0.004149111],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9973797,0.0007927754,0.0005598903,0.00004447819,0.0002509757,0.000001106628,0.00000217028,0.000008164714,0.0009608024],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1923032,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3057813,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01314644429771377,"score_gpt":0.2368955293540485,"score_spread":0.2237490850563347,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}