{"id":"W1536793382","doi":"10.3929/ethz-a-007568961","title":"A real time evaluation of employment forecasts in Switzerland","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Labor market dynamics and wage inequality","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Nowcasting; Econometrics; Economics; Series (stratigraphy); Consensus forecast; Actuarial science; Finance; Geography; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005104142,0.0002292559,0.0006319975,0.0003877431,0.00005700496,0.00002871024,0.0002151533,0.0001749294,0.002421628],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002603011,0.0002651991,0.0001610782,0.00026778,0.0001087527,0.0004315597,0.00007498507,0.0001615098,0.0004518965],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005813079,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001228652,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007064409,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002786656,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9976678,0.0001141145,0.001183003,0.0003979224,0.0001272097,0.0005099329],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984588,0.0001439292,0.0006523321,0.0004855753,0.00009880513,0.0001605447],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002543821,0.0002368418,0.9530838,0.00002059645,0.00005211721,9.882785e-7,0.0004462754,0.0000330204,0.00005402323,0.04467879,0.0002323989,0.001135725],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00172972,0.00007096233,0.9718431,0.00003823913,0.00002730585,0.000009038617,0.0000467982,0.006550995,0.00009667202,0.01727557,0.001892069,0.0004195141],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9303053,0.0008973706,0.00005642224,0.00009171436,0.0008964391,0.0004361353,0.000274488,0.00002772048,0.06701442],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9986327,0.0001025782,0.0003889588,0.0000462885,0.0001694548,0.00006680447,0.0000412724,0.0000310337,0.0005208853],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06832743,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.99998,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03671486322971419,"score_gpt":0.2596041174907806,"score_spread":0.2228892542610664,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}