{"id":"W1538712708","doi":"","title":"Predictability of Average Inflation over Long Time Horizons","year":2001,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Bank of Canada review","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Economics; Inflation (cosmology); Quarter (Canadian coin); Monetary policy; Time horizon; Horizon; Inflation targeting; Investment (military); Macroeconomics; Keynesian economics; Real interest rate; Monetary economics; Finance; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005247435,0.0001000934,0.0005583688,0.00005014414,0.00002519289,0.000003965522,0.0001378668,0.00003970787,0.004762694],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001636267,0.0001122517,0.0001036077,0.0001253166,0.00002940979,0.0001475749,0.00002116257,0.00006001577,0.00003258804],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001274156,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001084922,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1403438,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03907125,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987579,0.00001746468,0.0008346305,0.000170145,0.00003790517,0.0001819711],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990216,0.00004704501,0.0004883531,0.0003527366,0.00001379501,0.00007647274],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005782963,0.0001640217,0.845004,0.006342692,0.0003390696,0.00001215633,0.0001291966,0.0025708,0.00002299462,0.01533313,0.1136029,0.01642129],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003693025,0.00007010742,0.7007876,0.0005541502,0.00002730462,0.000008317071,0.000001095734,0.003742723,0.00003441854,0.001563302,0.2925818,0.0002598338],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8653551,0.08377814,0.0002676953,0.001190597,0.0002178444,0.0005539653,0.0005561212,0.00001161016,0.04806887],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9855921,0.01303669,0.00003907766,0.000393613,0.00004422831,0.000005351101,0.00002256835,0.00000904416,0.0008573913],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1789789,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9961471,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02900315593290246,"score_gpt":0.2105624114535934,"score_spread":0.1815592555206909,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}