{"id":"W1538712708","doi":"","title":"Predictability of Average Inflation over Long Time Horizons","year":2001,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Bank of Canada review","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Economics; Inflation (cosmology); Quarter (Canadian coin); Monetary policy; Time horizon; Horizon; Inflation targeting; Investment (military); Macroeconomics; Keynesian economics; Real interest rate; Monetary economics; Finance; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002781019,0.0001073168,0.0003668811,0.001075199,0.0003636298,0.002138186,0.000308526,0.0003273037,0.001093751],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01597106,0.0001543031,0.0002435329,0.001619212,0.0004946492,0.001086762,0.0004977235,0.0006787343,0.0002515307],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002301964,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002027716,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06764346,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06072621,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989091,0.0001786339,0.00006687841,0.0001120066,0.0006023249,0.0001310451],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.990468,0.004584889,0.00216139,0.0004610522,0.002019642,0.0003050058],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009122926,0.00005633729,0.4827534,0.0004036397,0.0004843057,0.001110103,0.001859173,0.08800144,0.002274669,0.1358257,0.01340092,0.272918],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003384435,0.0001327097,0.7338349,0.0002829812,0.0002586739,0.000570486,0.001330376,0.06130206,0.001862157,0.1654673,0.03479551,0.0001290228],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8186123,0.03373433,0.0201014,0.008343663,0.0001629476,0.00003797545,0.002011328,0.000165205,0.1168308],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9952464,0.003038547,0.0004194849,0.00005243158,0.00005084529,0.000003288721,0.0002054093,0.000006874104,0.000976712],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06764346,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1344995,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02900315593290246,"score_gpt":0.2105624114535934,"score_spread":0.1815592555206909,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}