{"id":"W1542032439","doi":"","title":"Talking about tomorrow’s monetary policy today","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"FRB SF weekly letter","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Monetary policy; Quarter (Canadian coin); Economics; Central bank; Forward guidance; Interest rate; Monetary economics; Open market operation; Business; Inflation targeting; Credit channel","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003511932,0.0003087001,0.0005339878,0.0004760588,0.0001619295,0.0001473651,0.0004022777,0.0001866135,0.001978446],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006090859,0.0003590732,0.000247537,0.0002287273,0.00005560435,0.0005718638,0.00004998123,0.0003202343,0.006250415],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001569938,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001411689,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001488821,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001537291,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978089,0.00001983229,0.0007535882,0.0005711108,0.00004284321,0.0008036754],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988455,0.00003498192,0.0002811716,0.0006364918,0.000006506134,0.0001953325],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001061385,0.0003700391,0.09009235,0.00005894124,0.0002776808,0.0001342743,0.002910087,0.003950589,0.0008284556,0.09678286,0.7762327,0.02825592],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008102395,0.0001498739,0.3153945,0.00002548693,0.00001007521,0.00003230223,0.00001258985,0.00397259,0.000159688,0.03704957,0.641625,0.000758133],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7432426,0.00172489,0.002080786,0.1152393,0.0008828758,0.0003155058,0.0002386564,0.0001803622,0.136095],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9167265,0.00007065098,0.0007197058,0.07332366,0.002668627,0.000008988412,0.0000702502,0.00003482915,0.006376784],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2253021,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998861,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03556360599799784,"score_gpt":0.2212776729045787,"score_spread":0.1857140669065808,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}