{"id":"W1542665681","doi":"10.1002/for.1267","title":"Global Capital Flows, Time‐Varying Fundamentals and Transitional Exchange Rate Dynamics","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Forecasting","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Exchange rate; Sharpe ratio; Pound (networking); Monetary economics; Liberian dollar; Econometrics; Capital flows; Markov chain; Equity (law); Financial economics; Portfolio; Mathematics; Microeconomics; Statistics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001663693,0.0003377528,0.0003678456,0.0005617239,0.0002372115,0.00165997,0.0002895714,0.0004388037,0.002834826],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006237814,0.0001559612,0.0005187792,0.0005305793,0.0008557168,0.00137326,0.0008076533,0.001101319,0.0001463319],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005097805,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002627161,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005043638,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002703256,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998274,0.0000614999,0.00001124485,0.00003948558,0.00001739525,0.00004305275],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9962279,0.001953415,0.001275701,0.0002317879,0.0001162857,0.0001949954],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007911299,0.0001886848,0.4348222,0.0001065843,0.0004598334,0.001339776,0.0007271519,0.4596364,0.004758413,0.06980035,0.001159689,0.02620973],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001104408,0.0004904883,0.4120689,0.0000462534,0.0002535931,0.0002946331,0.0005611762,0.5316332,0.002949152,0.04980117,0.001710612,0.00008045124],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9956236,0.0001300177,0.002756434,0.0001574351,0.000007604801,0.000006127926,0.00007363431,0.00002057212,0.001224503],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995505,0.00007052037,0.0001590767,0.00001099647,0.000003348519,0.000001727356,0.00004614112,0.000002089442,0.0001556301],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005043638,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01002854,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05583244939862192,"score_gpt":0.2042839428720714,"score_spread":0.1484514934734495,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}