{"id":"W1543743267","doi":"","title":"Calendar Corrected Chaotic Forecast of Financial Time Series","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Business","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Econometrics; Economics; Efficient-market hypothesis; Stock market; Weekend effect; Stock (firearms); Financial market; Financial economics; Finance; History","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002150165,0.0000947818,0.0004141998,0.0003761376,0.00002920406,0.00003185003,0.0002985836,0.00004545976,0.0009579107],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001245111,0.00009587139,0.0001772725,0.0003014007,0.00005313683,0.0003070199,0.00004403715,0.00007034211,0.00005949874],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006792376,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005089061,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007330352,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006380142,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998728,0.000008058236,0.0009449456,0.0001044197,0.0001081539,0.0001063746],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979292,0.00002433719,0.001108405,0.00009435185,0.0008171071,0.0000265697],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002670335,0.002592126,0.3487211,0.0003920042,0.002852533,0.0008363482,0.001484142,0.0308575,0.007019401,0.4878733,0.08474893,0.02995228],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001893698,0.0001739617,0.769895,0.0002034905,0.00005135849,0.0005799804,0.00005667559,0.004058413,0.0008137936,0.03143795,0.1904017,0.0004340388],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9688012,0.001772084,0.01519194,0.001999874,0.003917874,0.000102659,0.0009851762,0.00001628363,0.007212923],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9961728,0.00003323099,0.000527738,0.00002753262,0.0007390548,8.860335e-7,0.00002106874,0.00001146816,0.00246626],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4564354,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999554,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01100051190572828,"score_gpt":0.1863648499079926,"score_spread":0.1753643380022643,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}