{"id":"W1546223511","doi":"10.18433/j39014","title":"The Success Rate of New Drug Development in Clinical Trials: Crohn’s Disease","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Pharmacy & Pharmaceutical Sciences","topic":"Biosimilars and Bioanalytical Methods","field":"Immunology and Microbiology","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"Government of Canada","keywords":"Crohn's disease; Medicine; Drug; Disease; Clinical trial; Drug development; Drug trial; Internal medicine; Intensive care medicine; Pharmacology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.03632537,0.0001730718,0.0006262628,0.0001317014,0.0002640309,0.00006625184,0.001049864,0.00008305205,0.001118337],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00523885,0.00008730951,0.0003542608,0.0004424196,0.001730733,0.0002137868,0.0001516002,0.001345499,0.00001747395],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002000912,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00108019,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00002363073,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003434461,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9943749,0.002492091,0.002241835,0.0002462683,0.0001798344,0.0004650871],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9934269,0.005138049,0.0008141294,0.0001273627,0.00017367,0.0003199511],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00281296,0.0006441784,0.0824893,0.00002478652,0.0002153555,0.00006628374,0.0001596318,0.000005898321,0.1008939,0.001592799,0.009538261,0.8015566],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00362686,0.00006144551,0.06839559,0.00004467684,0.0001837608,0.00002795522,0.00006910239,0.0002309182,0.1802612,0.0009872864,0.7459441,0.0001670573],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9721973,0.007353655,0.0001516378,0.01542317,0.0043499,0.0002323493,0.000005351048,0.000007633201,0.0002790306],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9952312,0.001617149,0.001337366,0.001048961,0.0002948735,0.00000218238,3.341494e-7,0.000005783219,0.0004622091],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8013896,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997948,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2474602037292657,"score_gpt":0.5358302856649946,"score_spread":0.2883700819357289,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}