{"id":"W1548053019","doi":"10.18438/b82p4s","title":"“Prediction is Difficult, Especially the Future”: A Progress Report","year":2007,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Evidence Based Library and Information Practice","topic":"Health Sciences Research and Education","field":"Health Professions","cited_by":12,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Futures studies; Context (archaeology); Public relations; Diversification (marketing strategy); Political science; The Internet; Psychology; Library science; Computer science; Business; Marketing; World Wide Web; History","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts","scholarly_communication"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005398343,0.0001020416,0.00009403664,0.0001661798,0.00161933,0.0001911595,0.0002235605,0.0001305372,0.000691696],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003224907,0.00006513343,0.00002397482,0.0009572502,0.0001281194,0.1110673,0.00007925949,0.0006641854,0.0002434029],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004117966,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001655461,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001855563,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":7.15129e-7,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974663,0.0004986559,0.000800929,0.0001621405,0.0006214553,0.0004505526],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9952007,0.003295184,0.0006019138,0.0003201229,0.0002869615,0.0002951095],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001780461,0.0001410718,0.0787881,0.0007737611,0.00002149074,0.00003014846,0.01474233,0.000009274894,0.0000234413,0.08493369,0.668111,0.1506452],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001510857,0.00008317988,0.192308,0.0001505442,0.00000628316,0.00002454143,0.01040469,0.0004719066,0.00004342036,0.00004186761,0.7962555,0.0000589926],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.0455239,0.001497168,0.005266929,0.9100978,0.003542084,0.002251387,0.00002358736,0.0002803528,0.03151684],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.3623302,0.007554177,0.01085614,0.6045604,0.009237102,0.0005525913,0.0003405339,0.00002782703,0.004541059],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":"commentary","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3168063,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996804,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05636820823738318,"score_gpt":0.4202607471964174,"score_spread":0.3638925389590342,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}