{"id":"W1548053019","doi":"10.18438/b82p4s","title":"“Prediction is Difficult, Especially the Future”: A Progress Report","year":2007,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Evidence Based Library and Information Practice","topic":"Health Sciences Research and Education","field":"Health Professions","cited_by":12,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Futures studies; Context (archaeology); Public relations; Diversification (marketing strategy); Political science; The Internet; Psychology; Library science; Computer science; Business; Marketing; World Wide Web; History","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0349029,0.001104999,0.001200629,0.003740621,0.002348473,0.01241704,0.001951989,0.004896661,0.01061739],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05908288,0.0006491879,0.001193843,0.005565922,0.004667395,0.0276245,0.004539774,0.005306219,0.003353172],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003863874,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01432994,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.008536151,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007599404,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9879677,0.005824477,0.001112027,0.001073231,0.003559277,0.0004633008],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9336767,0.04757332,0.004665902,0.001419822,0.01089918,0.001764955],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":"methods","domain_candidate":"methods","domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001502305,0.0001254321,0.01246767,0.004370994,0.0000914667,0.0004887652,0.003550177,0.001095636,0.0001872425,0.04254668,0.1036995,0.8312263],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004017551,0.0002994026,0.01689007,0.02109921,0.0002058521,0.002348641,0.03623256,0.003190559,0.0009388437,0.07041023,0.8481465,0.0001978804],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.01490506,0.5486507,0.01727472,0.3692767,0.0118531,0.0001466152,0.0007900392,0.0002639688,0.03683899],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.2093779,0.7084651,0.03221755,0.02620522,0.01064254,0.0002477668,0.001559438,0.0001316444,0.01115287],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9650971,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1845864,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05636820823738318,"score_gpt":0.4202607471964174,"score_spread":0.3638925389590342,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}