{"id":"W1551306299","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0300.2013.12007.x","title":"Assessing Rating Agencies' Ability to Predict Bank Bankruptcy – The Lace Financial Case","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economic Notes","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Bankruptcy; Credit rating; Agency (philosophy); Quarter (Canadian coin); Sample (material); Actuarial science; Corporation; Business; Investment banking; Finance; Investment (military); Accounting; Economics; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008359131,0.0002192884,0.000384794,0.0001305958,0.0005965828,0.0005145146,0.0003001174,0.0001246977,0.001506759],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001148684,0.0002138308,0.0001673294,0.000177084,0.0001123099,0.0008245333,0.0001439264,0.0002147407,0.002368279],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003440738,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001283119,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003182628,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006929051,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981245,0.00002841112,0.0008183465,0.0005527571,0.00002986179,0.0004460959],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984224,0.0004721792,0.0003117248,0.0006107288,0.00003839011,0.0001445543],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000252885,0.0001836581,0.4858328,0.00007898318,0.00008042912,0.00008578895,0.006985181,0.01532448,0.0003785496,0.3371093,0.02703895,0.1268766],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004581434,0.00007754665,0.9047567,0.00001761564,0.00001374256,0.00009573693,0.0006556484,0.02664838,0.0001603694,0.03198827,0.03445463,0.0006731614],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9793524,0.0002472131,0.006055439,0.003421962,0.001144673,0.0006150168,0.0001456569,0.00007099531,0.00894664],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9964482,0.00001087377,0.001993186,0.0002114905,0.0008695194,0.0001499306,0.00001156232,0.00002875145,0.0002764937],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4189239,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.999406,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04024099277774096,"score_gpt":0.2579199257379902,"score_spread":0.2176789329602492,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}