{"id":"W1552375945","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2173148","title":"Bond Prices, Default Probabilities and Risk Premiums","year":2005,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":76,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Bond; Risk premium; Default risk; Credit risk; Financial economics; Economics; Econometrics; Bond valuation; Probability of default; Business; Actuarial science; Financial system; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00126234,0.0001297198,0.0002273707,0.0001473054,0.0003105049,0.00009304149,0.0001464093,0.00008940222,0.00004314048],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001619488,0.0001350289,0.00009094216,0.0001410476,0.00007058425,0.0003506854,0.00003162131,0.0008984306,0.00009301266],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005384163,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002795823,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002478618,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002185016,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981074,0.000007909745,0.000455919,0.0002373406,0.00004525264,0.001146156],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999356,0.0000387088,0.0003325696,0.0001575732,0.00003489414,0.00008024446],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001297565,0.00004158217,0.117038,0.000003635402,0.00004758679,2.410918e-7,0.0003514132,0.00008662892,0.000002504767,0.8524321,0.0002479255,0.02973547],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005136003,0.0001379906,0.1017429,0.000006477582,0.00001512099,0.0001076236,0.0003201442,0.0006126284,0.000008860057,0.7644804,0.1318446,0.0002096908],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9475582,0.02819495,0.01545628,0.0007978732,0.0001742717,0.0001585435,0.00003709115,0.0000316989,0.007591103],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.970698,0.02481467,0.001375282,0.00001560996,0.0007109334,0.000009882273,0.000003718144,0.00002091495,0.002350982],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1315967,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5506316,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008383776198244233,"score_gpt":0.1946307126221473,"score_spread":0.1862469364239031,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}