{"id":"W1554732352","doi":"10.34989/swp-2007-38","title":"The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Business cycle; Business; Economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001208838,0.0006643184,0.001939099,0.0006538664,0.0006987961,0.0005125159,0.001258022,0.0008434639,0.001599928],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002671498,0.0007379043,0.0005936447,0.000267058,0.0006188291,0.0004229457,0.0004669305,0.001170791,0.0005475043],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001178943,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001390094,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.2964946,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.3720494,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9952419,0.00007956041,0.002383384,0.001132352,0.00007972606,0.001083085],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9953661,0.0002746395,0.001849933,0.001840689,0.0001169218,0.0005517051],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002997773,0.0001589366,0.8589434,0.0002584681,0.0008614641,0.00001757505,0.002246598,0.0762075,0.000001727247,0.0461244,0.0142941,0.0008558463],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002096474,0.0001180887,0.4520763,0.000573791,0.0001990814,0.0001216677,0.001193627,0.3590558,0.0001211395,0.09043342,0.09006926,0.003941312],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.892123,0.01702401,0.0003767758,0.001556344,0.005201824,0.0005824082,0.00176415,0.00005486905,0.0813166],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9961491,0.0008549591,0.0005652211,0.0003599016,0.000460497,0.00008684881,0.0002134931,0.00008970148,0.001220233],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4068671,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9995072,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07516893343924305,"score_gpt":0.2470570196028748,"score_spread":0.1718880861636317,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}