{"id":"W1556548854","doi":"10.1002/for.1229","title":"Do Long‐Run Theory Restrictions Help in Forecasting?","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Forecasting","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Cointegration; Econometrics; Error correction model; Economics; Context (archaeology); Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01194079,0.0009231758,0.001240045,0.001152776,0.0005623279,0.004988343,0.001442484,0.001772866,0.006210164],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05933742,0.0006867052,0.0008903417,0.001064277,0.001664569,0.00770635,0.001387118,0.003021089,0.001271878],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001417798,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003344029,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01743186,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01528887,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9967633,0.001416581,0.000325195,0.0005299328,0.0006554871,0.0003094657],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9630418,0.02397263,0.004468018,0.004947896,0.003115267,0.0004543166],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004652737,0.0002110084,0.06088459,0.0002346756,0.0004624467,0.0004438244,0.0005063203,0.7420429,0.00221226,0.09137442,0.004250506,0.09691174],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009326317,0.0001960471,0.02452163,0.0001775396,0.0001872699,0.000149182,0.0005578827,0.8441568,0.003129325,0.1222606,0.004421019,0.0001494386],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6185182,0.002466861,0.3292284,0.0122499,0.0004606103,0.0001118664,0.00103033,0.001421546,0.03451233],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9869946,0.0004086478,0.0105248,0.0003650997,0.0001196038,0.00001708032,0.0004247387,0.0000572592,0.001088155],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01743186,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06314969,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.23538890951135,"score_gpt":0.2452937163915685,"score_spread":0.00990480688021847,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}