{"id":"W1564783490","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.424421","title":"The Favorite/Long-shot Bias in S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Index Futures Options: The Return to Bets and the Cost of Insurance","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Futures contract; Index (typography); Economics; Actuarial science; Shot (pellet); Financial economics; Chemistry; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007381325,0.0003019707,0.0006332195,0.0009861215,0.0005091973,0.00204561,0.001251615,0.002086997,0.007830686],"category_scores_gemma":[0.06083563,0.0003072608,0.0005297304,0.0007018319,0.001508979,0.002846619,0.0008953506,0.002368827,0.0006889497],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008825156,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005179911,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003761456,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005112004,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989406,0.0003454334,0.00007531773,0.0001757353,0.0002863966,0.000176494],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9551133,0.03235738,0.006018047,0.002640558,0.002026715,0.001844043],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003610528,0.0006749656,0.7974027,0.0001506494,0.0003880414,0.0009855133,0.0009309197,0.01768344,0.005077831,0.07073208,0.01024227,0.09212109],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002381209,0.0004311639,0.6803203,0.00008771362,0.0005083628,0.001053008,0.001410947,0.1441674,0.004937219,0.1624615,0.004226791,0.0001574492],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9881459,0.001317154,0.003705224,0.002411222,0.00009711852,0.00001799794,0.0002614479,0.00005642056,0.003987539],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9974323,0.0001562184,0.0003015292,0.0001630768,0.000101981,0.000003440286,0.0001191066,0.00001873891,0.001703573],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007830686,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03903663,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03339746712615219,"score_gpt":0.2497805944504034,"score_spread":0.2163831273242512,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}