{"id":"W1566392529","doi":"","title":"Uncertain Times, uncertain measures","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":146,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Recession; Business cycle; Economics; Econometrics; Stock market volatility; Volatility (finance); Index (typography); Stock market index; Stock (firearms); Consumption (sociology); Stock market; Monetary economics; Financial economics; Macroeconomics; Computer science; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004180576,0.0007951739,0.0009043782,0.002875183,0.001904648,0.00686435,0.0008201047,0.002450768,0.009189048],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03836998,0.0004758248,0.0005743497,0.0032201,0.007660649,0.01652168,0.00221929,0.004525885,0.001048969],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002007569,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008290214,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0016245,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000763735,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9969273,0.001245985,0.0002126593,0.0005464659,0.0009025975,0.0001650521],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9780312,0.01560517,0.002417712,0.001616136,0.00161834,0.0007113821],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001724301,0.000007459012,0.0005003438,0.00005725771,0.00001333768,0.00007043046,0.0003202051,0.0009602904,0.00005028343,0.9840252,0.003822339,0.01015559],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000254244,0.000005172572,0.000297319,0.00003879263,0.000004157424,0.00007091553,0.0001423551,0.00106734,0.00002701223,0.9812109,0.01712439,0.000009054414],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.06076248,0.1496152,0.344685,0.1329893,0.01125204,0.0001084638,0.002593426,0.0002850658,0.2977091],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8813951,0.04192967,0.03423815,0.006139237,0.01721089,0.000219204,0.000788969,0.0001731794,0.01790564],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.009189048,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03074038,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06048829448304684,"score_gpt":0.306070579855978,"score_spread":0.2455822853729311,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}