{"id":"W1568058459","doi":"10.3386/w10922","title":"Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility: Facts","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":36,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"York University","keywords":"Macro; Volatility (finance); Econometrics; Economics; Financial economics; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006087409,0.0003348169,0.00112288,0.003569299,0.0001293879,0.0001191521,0.0004770127,0.0005477945,0.002346863],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005772323,0.0004286962,0.0002282401,0.0002780433,0.0003097725,0.0004062917,0.0002725396,0.000938135,0.0003515276],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00373577,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007269511,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02604006,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001142705,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9963843,0.00005588769,0.001641365,0.0009625079,0.0002192649,0.0007367247],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982114,0.0003810871,0.0006781731,0.0004161835,0.0001278109,0.0001853377],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003140989,0.0005330854,0.3280729,0.001326695,0.001136452,0.00004333446,0.001879887,0.008684419,0.00004273504,0.5684678,0.07655729,0.01294134],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001777344,0.0001408948,0.1125078,0.0002067848,0.000009074332,0.00004475983,0.00004951052,0.005161183,0.00006769574,0.8352405,0.04404766,0.0007467815],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2406212,0.005702684,0.000005225784,0.001213044,0.0006392334,0.0003995656,0.001659542,0.00001711387,0.7497424],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9855486,0.002396367,0.0001729623,0.00004320788,0.0004764717,0.00003497149,0.0005167174,0.00005394386,0.01075679],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7449274,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998165,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.5345844432065318,"score_gpt":0.4770391700831363,"score_spread":0.05754527312339541,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}