{"id":"W1571137117","doi":"10.1057/gpp.2014.12","title":"Underwriting Apophenia and Cryptids: Are Cycles Statistical Figments of our Imagination?","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice","topic":"Insurance and Financial Risk Management","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":17,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal; HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Underwriting; Profitability index; Property insurance; Autoregressive model; Insurance industry; Economics; Medical underwriting; Actuarial science; Financial economics; Statistical evidence; Business; General insurance; Econometrics; Insurance policy; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001074667,0.0001511341,0.0003083755,0.00005853763,0.0003135438,0.00009788783,0.00009339969,0.00004386549,0.000012095],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000708866,0.0001286725,0.00002628521,0.00008697821,0.0001110918,0.0002644936,0.00005364376,0.0001581854,0.00001972942],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001071369,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000003763026,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007241144,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003048545,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989632,0.000102462,0.0003541736,0.0003164847,0.0000718171,0.0001919116],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988571,0.0004006189,0.0004527381,0.0001978944,0.00004049217,0.00005118235],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004161462,0.000193611,0.367939,0.0002436703,0.00014699,0.000004382289,0.002764318,0.0001335669,0.00008553494,0.386763,0.001025329,0.2402845],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008909783,0.0002026294,0.8137419,0.00006309702,0.00003491584,0.000005789784,0.002541778,0.0008118571,0.00004181018,0.02627448,0.1551275,0.0002632349],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9327964,0.0240498,0.001238718,0.006461313,0.0002365937,0.0003596792,0.0003582022,0.00002706042,0.03447231],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9609644,0.03659149,0.001512621,0.000633482,0.00009736295,0.00001131493,0.000004238245,0.00001394065,0.0001711225],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.445803,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5247114,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02048999687479817,"score_gpt":0.2723761030007942,"score_spread":0.251886106125996,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}