{"id":"W1582278691","doi":"10.1080/10920277.2010.10597597","title":"Developing Mortality Improvement Formulas","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"North American Actuarial Journal","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":44,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"Society of Actuaries","keywords":"Annuity; Actuarial science; Life annuity; Pension; Valuation (finance); Longevity risk; Life insurance; Economics; Econometrics; Heuristic; Scale (ratio); Population; Mathematics; Finance; Geography; Demography; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004905296,0.0008368016,0.0006373522,0.002382984,0.0004469843,0.001254257,0.001332224,0.0009277588,0.006223109],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02723651,0.0003681115,0.0008678313,0.001545867,0.0005763622,0.002298509,0.001562446,0.002167121,0.001445813],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001604735,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001421507,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003271236,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00283743,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982104,0.0006184604,0.000141966,0.0001725424,0.0007164674,0.0001401193],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9921739,0.004630728,0.0005173417,0.0004898334,0.002086724,0.0001014625],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000270672,0.0000786403,0.002579329,0.0002362284,0.00003957357,0.0002314347,0.0001744663,0.2716137,0.001371012,0.5326883,0.01818131,0.1727788],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001106932,0.00002794634,0.000490377,0.00009411314,0.00002120898,0.00009883264,0.00003890651,0.8194906,0.0009288182,0.1678044,0.01097892,0.00001484093],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.007663559,0.0009642188,0.9707186,0.0009293651,0.0003401242,0.0001144528,0.0002492294,0.000321672,0.01869869],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.3197743,0.002387802,0.6604411,0.0007263178,0.001161697,0.0005528571,0.000784274,0.0004056699,0.01376604],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.006223109,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02594203,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0235352521633095,"score_gpt":0.3303506855262878,"score_spread":0.3068154333629783,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}