{"id":"W1588397015","doi":"","title":"Why are exchange rates so difficult to predict","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economics Letters","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Liberian dollar; Pound (networking); Currency; Economics; Quarter (Canadian coin); Us dollar; Value (mathematics); Monetary economics; Exchange rate; International economics; Keynesian economics; Geography; Finance; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00833512,0.0005618977,0.0008388878,0.002107352,0.0007327983,0.005486256,0.001127611,0.002253512,0.006933758],"category_scores_gemma":[0.08124474,0.000556297,0.0003200672,0.002592837,0.001679159,0.01293608,0.00124999,0.003638992,0.005469674],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001065023,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000927552,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005730051,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00225178,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9967908,0.001372955,0.0002552351,0.0006445647,0.0007261491,0.0002102149],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9696601,0.01860969,0.004455863,0.001983921,0.004447589,0.0008428859],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005778794,0.00006837113,0.08148136,0.0008190654,0.000375707,0.000569945,0.001606675,0.01525112,0.0004227687,0.2593714,0.3151847,0.324271],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009663853,0.00004850526,0.04056988,0.001316737,0.00007392622,0.0007023529,0.002886597,0.01691496,0.0004791527,0.7675655,0.1691749,0.0001709122],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1098392,0.09519503,0.05445692,0.6181096,0.01071716,0.00007364766,0.008884168,0.001471619,0.1012527],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8929764,0.05179342,0.009740546,0.02161434,0.01097992,0.00008170501,0.003889056,0.0003907885,0.008533888],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.00833512,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04408079,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05843190501924608,"score_gpt":0.2013849602000214,"score_spread":0.1429530551807753,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}