{"id":"W1588410244","doi":"","title":"Are GMO's Predictions Prescient? Using them to predict Vanguard's Mutual Fund Returns","year":2007,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Private Equity and Venture Capital","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Vanguard; Mutual fund; Asset (computer security); Economics; Ask price; Quarter (Canadian coin); Financial economics; Econometrics; Business; Monetary economics; Computer science; Finance; History","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002954144,0.0004933261,0.0006166561,0.001402067,0.0004902509,0.0009776825,0.001483266,0.0006516748,0.0003853691],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001171792,0.0005373863,0.0002962462,0.0005652144,0.0003316258,0.0007303157,0.004855423,0.002226904,0.0001450092],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001088017,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002769821,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002112622,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008682056,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9956911,0.00006968669,0.0008173982,0.001346399,0.0006739289,0.001401514],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9974998,0.000225884,0.0005067866,0.001301642,0.0003241219,0.000141723],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003004613,0.004178627,0.468371,0.006676016,0.002013858,0.00174536,0.004539802,0.2798017,0.001981636,0.01700727,0.02874912,0.181931],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002653365,0.0001231951,0.108878,0.002903611,0.0002225109,0.00005158925,0.008064334,0.1356006,0.0002579952,0.0107783,0.7273858,0.003080776],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8588619,0.0001040443,0.00009687668,0.0006045769,0.002502809,0.001514206,0.0001474721,0.0002002791,0.1359679],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9912217,0.0003643995,0.0004742543,0.0006901814,0.004943016,0.0001275219,0.0001579301,0.0001237155,0.001897311],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6986367,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997078,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1021734890650375,"score_gpt":0.3303461042242831,"score_spread":0.2281726151592456,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}