{"id":"W1588626284","doi":"","title":"Dynamic Models of Portfolio Behavior: More on Pitfalls in Financial Model Building","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Economic Review","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":31,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Portfolio; Constraint (computer-aided design); Stock (firearms); Econometrics; Consistency (knowledge bases); Asset (computer security); Consumption (sociology); Capital asset; Microeconomics; Financial economics; Finance; Mathematics; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007064001,0.0003079607,0.001465471,0.0002879023,0.00003299197,0.00001358475,0.0004906234,0.00007300384,0.0002466778],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005766079,0.0002937482,0.0003245916,0.0001312602,0.0002606122,0.0003920896,0.0001016111,0.000129152,0.0002426904],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005230995,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001036938,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000368759,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006396066,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971247,0.000020565,0.001638882,0.0007231095,0.00002635851,0.0004664193],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977983,0.00007727088,0.001208591,0.0007814433,0.000015361,0.0001190319],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003273807,0.000128737,0.003378922,0.0001803465,0.00003446594,0.000004420752,0.00008613679,0.009077455,0.00003364316,0.9222464,0.0007949147,0.06400184],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.004926065,0.00099323,0.01685378,0.006749895,0.000159871,0.00004904921,0.0001198339,0.1967504,0.0002017036,0.7287812,0.04004269,0.004372275],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9436503,0.01899377,0.01146096,0.001687138,0.0003736876,0.001052122,0.0008202104,0.00005225305,0.02190953],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9230072,0.07353809,0.001599654,0.00111535,0.00002858582,0.000150445,0.000007245237,0.0000545896,0.0004988341],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1934651,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999515,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02583887804739815,"score_gpt":0.2671341386728879,"score_spread":0.2412952606254897,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}