{"id":"W159677738","doi":"","title":"Permanent and Transitory Movements in Output and Unemployment: Okun’s Law Persists","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Economic Theory and Policy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":17,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"NAIRU; Unemployment; Natural rate of unemployment; Economics; Okun's law; Inflation (cosmology); Full employment; Keynesian economics; Phillips curve; Recession; Bivariate analysis; Unemployment rate; Econometrics; Macroeconomics; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002015738,0.0001064204,0.000204069,0.0001034398,0.0000574014,0.00003666216,0.00006519754,0.00005699128,0.0001147794],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000003226558,0.0001235934,0.0000321673,0.00003398196,0.00007989926,0.0001624487,0.00002741685,0.00007162149,0.0001020532],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007473355,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000006313584,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00157513,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006611694,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992626,0.000006573704,0.0002802621,0.0002596089,0.000006830588,0.000184163],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997327,0.0000138541,0.00005303109,0.000122367,0.000002528316,0.00007547965],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001108196,0.00004760512,0.01541924,0.0000175957,0.00001707119,0.000002586873,0.003154377,0.00006608255,0.000008639017,0.980961,0.00002022628,0.0002745402],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.004817065,0.0001534391,0.06118599,0.0000370708,0.000005203438,0.00001559787,0.0009649994,0.0002105394,0.0003363244,0.8799697,0.0516953,0.0006088052],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9012073,0.0009282956,0.00003590593,0.000814964,0.0000986815,0.0001066394,0.00003301625,0.0000149958,0.0967602],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9958661,0.0002337442,0.00006057954,0.001468751,0.00004285471,0.000007728228,0.000003237865,0.00001143356,0.002305584],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1009913,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5039994,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0260714487543543,"score_gpt":0.2115550154975258,"score_spread":0.1854835667431715,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}