{"id":"W1604902863","doi":"","title":"The overselling of population aging : apocalyptic demography, intergenerational challenges and social policy","year":2000,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":151,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Population ageing; Restructuring; Mythology; Population; Politics; Demography; Sociology; Demographic economics; Political science; Economics; History","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002084554,0.0002646511,0.0002622348,0.001554924,0.005079165,0.005852937,0.0004944399,0.001695844,0.006423996],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004373595,0.0001286498,0.0001320103,0.001840806,0.01722083,0.00575795,0.002679545,0.003644702,0.0005087419],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.005782055,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00267591,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01090981,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01230061,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990178,0.0006458493,0.00001503312,0.0000635219,0.0001433766,0.0001143652],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9974508,0.00169128,0.0001802168,0.0001813369,0.0002221761,0.0002740721],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000009948991,0.000008436709,0.0007020644,0.00005332998,0.000002130377,0.00009427465,0.02091731,0.0001651471,0.00007021716,0.9011619,0.06299736,0.01381781],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002464908,0.000008171317,0.001972962,0.0002876777,0.000002015094,0.0001190788,0.02650056,0.0002432903,0.00007537904,0.468049,0.5027298,0.000009726073],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.04637888,0.08347844,0.005434535,0.5872985,0.006032635,0.00002575189,0.0002342389,0.00006821349,0.2710488],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8973294,0.04076036,0.001314321,0.01729633,0.005622218,0.00004755496,0.00007426496,0.00006086052,0.03749457],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01090981,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04195195,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04711943358296961,"score_gpt":0.3551694008476146,"score_spread":0.308049967264645,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}