{"id":"W1605517779","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2366468","title":"Long-Term Returns: A Reality Check for Pension Funds and Retirement Savings","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations; Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Pension; Term (time); Business; Actuarial science; Reality check; Finance; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003969818,0.0002834731,0.0003093719,0.002274324,0.0007423037,0.00187132,0.0007044052,0.0006808178,0.00957081],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04496245,0.0001647827,0.0004106882,0.001269566,0.0006662199,0.003874371,0.001920683,0.00114906,0.001564675],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003074434,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004397945,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003144132,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002880836,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979493,0.0007658919,0.0002806213,0.0002389526,0.0005307314,0.0002345173],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9565172,0.02170753,0.01126336,0.004133514,0.004311089,0.002067313],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001386147,0.0003004958,0.9220108,0.0001007333,0.0001420023,0.0008642036,0.002793118,0.0006661571,0.0006139499,0.0137644,0.01421677,0.04314122],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009665468,0.000850414,0.9464838,0.000109793,0.0002052901,0.001420234,0.01016764,0.004826627,0.001530709,0.008773409,0.02545955,0.00007589689],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9816276,0.000255644,0.001088341,0.001622099,0.0000474104,0.00001843695,0.001868829,0.00007167535,0.01339981],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9967495,0.00006012707,0.0005888108,0.00007860221,0.00005703623,0.00001125686,0.001097005,0.00002303224,0.001334642],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00957081,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03201753,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01688733259831454,"score_gpt":0.2457063564143111,"score_spread":0.2288190238159966,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}