{"id":"W1645451816","doi":"10.3319/tao.2006.17.3.503(t)","title":"From Tornadoes to Earthquakes: Forecast Verification for Binary Events Applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan,Earthquake","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences","topic":"earthquake and tectonic studies","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":31,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"U.S. Geological Survey; National Science Council; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Southern California Earthquake Center; National Aeronautics and Space Administration; University of California, Davis; U.S. Department of Energy; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Tornado; Seismology; Earthquake prediction; Geology; Meteorology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006063264,0.0002724426,0.000308727,0.00001862111,0.001085919,0.0002035539,0.0005252775,0.00007247661,0.0002679474],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00009857948,0.0001718569,0.00009282734,0.0006889341,0.0002255605,0.000179412,0.00004912056,0.00009843282,0.0001537892],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000007736119,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000104831,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006902367,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005847337,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978204,0.00006088483,0.000394735,0.0006964765,0.0004522776,0.000575177],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990885,0.000304781,0.0001306896,0.0002747811,0.00002474517,0.0001764635],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001342294,0.000153906,0.2212477,0.00002564188,0.0001377251,0.000008336528,0.00374882,0.01575955,0.0002331937,0.001750004,0.03299997,0.7225928],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000812189,0.0007763191,0.929539,0.00003190775,0.00004121449,0.000003429332,0.001707763,0.006083671,0.00006614892,0.00254967,0.05799966,0.000389074],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9917121,0.001066707,0.000852577,0.001633371,0.001142532,0.0010463,0.000127618,0.00008088303,0.002337926],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9911016,0.0000439669,0.006651944,0.0005687522,0.001294584,0.00002495232,0.00005449683,0.000007356165,0.000252366],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7222037,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997107,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01971033506682427,"score_gpt":0.227603828319226,"score_spread":0.2078934932524017,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}