{"id":"W1685864327","doi":"10.1017/cbo9780511808098.016","title":"Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions","year":2002,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"Cambridge University Press eBooks","topic":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":161,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Wilfrid Laurier University","funders":"","keywords":"Fallacy; Plan (archaeology); Operations research; Computer science; Management science; Actuarial science; Psychology; Economics; Epistemology; Mathematics; History","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005817805,0.000941966,0.000659198,0.001497743,0.001170089,0.006524848,0.001573197,0.0029014,0.006178006],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02090455,0.0005631834,0.0004170547,0.002231185,0.01005661,0.01169914,0.001894452,0.006875604,0.001596517],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002950584,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001871909,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002739836,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003560395,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9970836,0.001385238,0.00009325046,0.0003348961,0.0009794233,0.0001234763],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9826702,0.01482248,0.0006420782,0.000828722,0.0008500704,0.0001863587],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003489038,0.00002506282,0.0009532585,0.0001239975,0.00003364062,0.0001915112,0.001419654,0.00702417,0.0001126661,0.8816958,0.03459736,0.07378805],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000007126361,0.000008472485,0.0004264298,0.0001639817,0.00000794377,0.00009729593,0.0003565288,0.004424656,0.0001319071,0.9573108,0.03704737,0.00001746487],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.02755999,0.09039427,0.2531908,0.1550538,0.003883548,0.00007477786,0.0008294243,0.0006202215,0.4683932],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7575197,0.05534147,0.07880187,0.01835712,0.004224378,0.0002592423,0.0005769397,0.0007348075,0.08418442],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.006524848,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03076786,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1470971828917083,"score_gpt":0.295991243445771,"score_spread":0.1488940605540627,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}