{"id":"W1726490485","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1596297","title":"Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Financial economics; Business; Economics; Monetary economics; Psychology; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002705305,0.0002828818,0.0006387293,0.0008328128,0.0003345018,0.002171485,0.0006229838,0.002104993,0.009817667],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02654871,0.0002044038,0.0002438354,0.0007834627,0.0008208871,0.003844315,0.0008280069,0.002575478,0.0006005925],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003230654,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002003779,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001164506,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008266797,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998099,0.00005512571,0.00002024198,0.0000362686,0.00004311387,0.00003527494],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9811086,0.01208695,0.004658943,0.001013937,0.0004963109,0.0006351041],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.004810677,0.000710419,0.4223682,0.0003878495,0.0004720311,0.007945989,0.002934335,0.01303801,0.006658498,0.3244703,0.02090915,0.1952946],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005520837,0.0002507179,0.3186966,0.0001346807,0.0003010755,0.003581241,0.001746157,0.03408306,0.001598939,0.6327092,0.006242885,0.0001032482],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9722865,0.00302548,0.002269809,0.01260144,0.0001182301,0.000004371007,0.0001589362,0.0000329892,0.009502224],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.997558,0.0005331952,0.0001437146,0.0002610307,0.0002343969,0.000001291546,0.00005055126,0.000008087237,0.001209603],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.009817667,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03284335,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0087798701640553,"score_gpt":0.1922046690833752,"score_spread":0.1834247989193199,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}