{"id":"W1736429924","doi":"","title":"Speculation in commodity futures markets: A simple equilibrium model","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe)","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Speculation; Futures contract; Normal backwardation; Commodity; Economics; Simple (philosophy); Contango; Convenience yield; Derivatives market; Commodity market; General equilibrium theory; Position (finance); Mathematical economics; Microeconomics; Financial economics; Spot contract; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001801169,0.00107155,0.002967465,0.001340163,0.001174166,0.00413103,0.002706819,0.006181704,0.007205703],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008737509,0.00148025,0.001727927,0.00151663,0.002240949,0.005448616,0.001911875,0.002745957,0.0008060118],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001455705,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001735348,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01062885,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003988702,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994516,0.0002304589,0.00002935203,0.0001092714,0.00008548671,0.00009383534],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9964425,0.002311218,0.0004212486,0.0001447937,0.0003603426,0.0003199078],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002126211,0.0001396229,0.001376676,0.0001237375,0.00008009416,0.0006127501,0.0002551431,0.6453768,0.0009859964,0.3444884,0.002858712,0.003489416],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006554701,0.00001588918,0.0001507413,0.000006495482,0.00001823774,0.00003819934,0.00001846601,0.9405319,0.00004693937,0.05879442,0.0002947401,0.0000184166],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5758576,0.004492526,0.3185877,0.01519469,0.0006606099,0.0001879232,0.001739938,0.0007474495,0.08253156],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9586265,0.001468436,0.0078909,0.000308331,0.0004518791,0.00009930979,0.0003468055,0.0001009516,0.03070694],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01062885,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02410543,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02124531965363777,"score_gpt":0.2230202619993025,"score_spread":0.2017749423456647,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}