{"id":"W1806842414","doi":"10.3968/j.pam.1925252820130501.718","title":"First Excursion Probabilities of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems by Importance Sampling","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Progress in applied mathematics","topic":"Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Excursion; Mathematics; Linearization; Monte Carlo method; Poisson distribution; Sampling (signal processing); Linear dynamical system; Applied mathematics; Gaussian; Importance sampling; Linear model; Statistics; Linear system; Nonlinear system; Computer science; Mathematical analysis; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001727443,0.0006672951,0.0007720657,0.001241205,0.0003195623,0.0006588519,0.0008990955,0.0004881253,0.001159213],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007341499,0.0004847761,0.000729504,0.0004170809,0.0009137326,0.001087821,0.0008033939,0.0009840318,0.0001813385],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004656756,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004724726,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002144675,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001360465,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992679,0.0002841322,0.00003367567,0.0001249104,0.0002311836,0.00005819623],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9949752,0.003952042,0.0003987152,0.0002238209,0.0003442247,0.0001060262],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001239866,0.00005974886,0.002623036,0.0001723682,0.00008906767,0.0001884051,0.0001325157,0.911623,0.005963763,0.03412785,0.000297099,0.04459925],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002755143,0.00001530938,0.0003597302,0.00000456401,0.000005031186,0.00002209152,0.000004283756,0.9941683,0.0008709337,0.004444334,0.00009531207,0.000007429812],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.01457687,0.00008053237,0.9848993,0.00001932344,0.000006981633,0.00001867642,0.000009390765,0.00008561,0.0003032768],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7890737,0.000389482,0.2081452,0.00004112077,0.00005430432,0.0001769179,0.0001485798,0.000102859,0.001867766],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.002144675,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.009135723,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05653516897583648,"score_gpt":0.3195092268867539,"score_spread":0.2629740579109174,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}