{"id":"W1841893850","doi":"10.1093/aesa/sav061","title":"Investigating Long-Term Changes in the Spring Migration of Monarch Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) Using 18 Years of Data From Journey North, a Citizen Science Program","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Annals of the Entomological Society of America","topic":"Animal and Plant Science Education","field":"Psychology","cited_by":28,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Annenberg Foundation","keywords":"Danaus; Nymphalidae; Monarch butterfly; Range (aeronautics); Citizen science; Overwintering; Phenology; Lepidoptera genitalia; Ecology; Biology; Geography; Demography; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00134415,0.00008545,0.0002317186,0.00003968924,0.00005974895,0.00001665771,0.001197523,0.00005216443,0.00002814155],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002575791,0.00005319446,0.00008110468,0.0007581059,0.001680533,0.0001572739,0.0002843555,0.0001292531,0.00000130172],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001121116,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008603353,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006934022,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00009163471,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984806,0.0002163647,0.0003376238,0.0002473227,0.0004950022,0.0002230914],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985512,0.000281692,0.0005685973,0.000393829,0.0001532296,0.00005145213],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002026843,0.0002573093,0.9566697,0.00001711146,0.00002313556,5.748155e-7,0.01607734,0.0000472619,0.006099956,0.00002404193,0.0003342449,0.02042904],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009811838,0.0002296091,0.9911625,0.00009225915,0.00001394504,0.000002990872,0.004597772,0.001124437,0.002241004,0.0003270424,0.00004846762,0.00006180291],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9968657,0.0003166419,0.00007748119,0.002309421,0.00008174717,0.000205704,0.00003714971,0.000005875665,0.0001002086],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9940831,0.0000858752,0.005319142,0.0004273792,0.00005685397,0.000005951206,0.00001236728,0.00000288769,0.000006435096],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03449283,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996789,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4078261276582006,"score_gpt":0.4471401896774254,"score_spread":0.03931406201922477,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}