{"id":"W1878231143","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1084925","title":"The Predictability of Monetary Policy","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Monetary policy; Credibility; Term (time); Economics; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001440386,0.0003338869,0.0006807211,0.001031357,0.0005077878,0.003285711,0.0003545714,0.001039685,0.005130082],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02395274,0.000423645,0.0003758624,0.001056092,0.001380825,0.003776798,0.0009851974,0.001909881,0.0006969011],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008133627,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006458868,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002284833,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00149782,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996033,0.0001042658,0.00002931966,0.00009561649,0.0001081697,0.0000592404],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9864943,0.008962126,0.002516425,0.0010042,0.0006945226,0.000328433],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004712072,0.00009984445,0.105156,0.0001857681,0.0003169634,0.0006985402,0.0004990789,0.1452031,0.001530607,0.6583727,0.02178486,0.06568142],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003001294,0.00004604853,0.04330675,0.0000415395,0.00006200763,0.0001427503,0.0001505406,0.1658916,0.0004646614,0.7856006,0.004223198,0.00004023629],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8452429,0.007630745,0.04202038,0.03215742,0.001106325,0.00002017987,0.001222001,0.0006327495,0.06996728],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969805,0.0008474906,0.0003181362,0.0001633519,0.0004051602,0.000004267599,0.00009961439,0.00002649233,0.001154943],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005130082,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01716185,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03010181296184165,"score_gpt":0.212224996588123,"score_spread":0.1821231836262814,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}