{"id":"W1891877089","doi":"10.7202/800835ar","title":"Taux d’intérêt à long terme, martingales, et marchés efficients","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"L Actualité économique","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Martingale (probability theory); Bond; Economics; Econometrics; Bond valuation; Mathematics; Bond market; Financial economics; Statistics; Monetary economics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005866904,0.0009958289,0.001290631,0.002396111,0.001524953,0.005092715,0.001030152,0.002198472,0.009479403],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02162482,0.0007764391,0.001242516,0.002702541,0.006316647,0.007211713,0.001183916,0.006763608,0.001279709],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003435261,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00101484,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005853295,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00333429,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979836,0.001036879,0.00006993608,0.000304224,0.0004047974,0.000200477],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9928747,0.005005619,0.0008186382,0.0004671976,0.0005181213,0.0003155938],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001137651,0.000006021105,0.0002120676,0.00001249893,0.000006359543,0.00002601741,0.00005642472,0.001029613,0.00005227439,0.9952176,0.0008803496,0.002489382],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002331803,0.00002016953,0.0008610504,0.00003908067,0.000009810504,0.0001072679,0.00005936923,0.01140299,0.0001247643,0.9749857,0.01234875,0.00001772645],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1551902,0.06174216,0.548422,0.03847742,0.002716333,0.00005502188,0.0006166505,0.0002921241,0.1924882],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8472638,0.02117668,0.05944135,0.001380617,0.005257309,0.0002008718,0.0004049345,0.000182433,0.06469201],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.009479403,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03171176,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04905057318689496,"score_gpt":0.2422603510783733,"score_spread":0.1932097778914783,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}