{"id":"W1941837589","doi":"10.1029/2012gl053283","title":"Understanding Atlantic multi‐decadal variability prediction skill","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":30,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico","keywords":"Ocean gyre; Initialization; Forcing (mathematics); Climatology; Environmental science; Forecast skill; Radiative forcing; Subtropics; Oceanography; Geology; Climate change; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00084384,0.0001790486,0.0001331981,0.0002999362,0.00009543211,0.0008221689,0.0001869192,0.0003006106,0.0005995138],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005821842,0.0001323777,0.0001935484,0.0002100056,0.0001270611,0.001047334,0.000368124,0.000376033,0.0001084696],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003729286,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000324217,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01319339,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.011751,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998909,0.00002148026,0.00001075026,0.00003862175,0.00001979622,0.00001843825],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9981552,0.001099776,0.0002553038,0.0001656775,0.0002550843,0.00006891188],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002104439,0.00006807515,0.7751405,0.00004036617,0.0001242573,0.00008209066,0.0003745477,0.1651023,0.009152097,0.002411385,0.000783206,0.04651073],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001147167,0.00004954594,0.5272504,0.00001451547,0.00003410768,0.00002521708,0.0001392955,0.4676426,0.003101433,0.00124657,0.0004655265,0.00001936679],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9947879,0.00007709758,0.003292361,0.0001220711,0.000007596026,0.000004306564,0.0002806679,0.00005103825,0.00137695],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9990477,0.0000276825,0.0006036556,0.000009603711,0.000003406794,0.000001666441,0.0002034066,0.000004633212,0.0000981706],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01319339,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0262332,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1521356649972161,"score_gpt":0.3383035241867617,"score_spread":0.1861678591895456,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}