{"id":"W1952634141","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2137299","title":"Analyst Forecast Revisions and Overconfidence","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary; HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Econometrics; Actuarial science; Financial economics; Economics; Psychology; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007057758,0.0002984893,0.0004737714,0.001632285,0.0002863581,0.002685205,0.000584094,0.001352386,0.004990995],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1459424,0.0003432866,0.0003583736,0.001157426,0.0005156895,0.002340445,0.0006179149,0.001644384,0.0005126777],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004796644,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003584211,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003391109,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002366652,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982158,0.0005452404,0.0002653458,0.0003144581,0.0004864648,0.0001727305],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.7077878,0.2075147,0.06170826,0.01060521,0.008461485,0.003922627],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001705191,0.000187708,0.9543492,0.00004717081,0.0003205447,0.000609957,0.00103511,0.006509237,0.0007629977,0.002293437,0.00179388,0.03038563],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001512546,0.0005410764,0.9389498,0.00005662496,0.0003052857,0.001598402,0.001047184,0.03316558,0.001392552,0.02100869,0.001681571,0.0001019944],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9960914,0.000486008,0.0006988758,0.0008195041,0.0000365588,0.000004120065,0.0001965762,0.00002129264,0.00164567],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992249,0.0001328274,0.00009726099,0.00004503412,0.00007386021,0.000001291829,0.000106556,0.000005493456,0.0003128003],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007057758,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03732544,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02282878944117884,"score_gpt":0.2223929374539823,"score_spread":0.1995641480128035,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}