{"id":"W1964450123","doi":"10.1111/j.0737-6782.2005.00129.x","title":"Predictors of the Survival of Innovations<sup>*</sup>","year":2005,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Product Innovation Management","topic":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":90,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Optimism; CLARITY; New product development; Marketing; Profit (economics); Agency (philosophy); Product (mathematics); Duration (music); Business; Actuarial science; Economics; Psychology; Sociology; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009171095,0.0001389008,0.0003496152,0.001444183,0.0001202219,0.00005717443,0.0009513632,0.00004423931,0.0003116276],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00326946,0.00007873863,0.0001169712,0.01050834,0.0001204601,0.0005290017,0.0002468767,0.0002458258,0.000009474029],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006754889,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009995216,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000001353679,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000001248114,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9936456,0.0001601605,0.003312784,0.0002153863,0.002502459,0.0001636122],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9892902,0.0001796462,0.003840227,0.0005347394,0.00613357,0.00002164185],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001756541,0.0007615016,0.1061666,0.00009352717,0.0003241276,0.000002593444,0.001831253,0.02106368,0.01341849,0.3242685,0.05932566,0.4725683],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002663873,0.0003133507,0.4120156,0.0003164653,0.0001193379,0.00004229794,0.005029,0.005270608,0.03627292,0.01721629,0.5203136,0.0004265981],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9774307,0.00003232788,0.005100408,0.007752339,0.0009857336,0.0003331432,0.000008981329,0.000009545332,0.008346841],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9919145,0.000007606519,0.004803446,0.0003834582,0.0004633674,0.000002477597,0.000003427609,0.000007450204,0.002414252],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4721417,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.504891,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0856561929673714,"score_gpt":0.3417285289545799,"score_spread":0.2560723359872086,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}