{"id":"W1966252479","doi":"10.1038/ngeo1698","title":"Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature Geoscience","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":370,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; University of Toronto","funders":"University of Toronto","keywords":"Predictability; Stratosphere; Climatology; Forecast skill; Troposphere; Sudden stratospheric warming; Environmental science; Atmospheric sciences; Precipitation; Atmospheric circulation; Meteorology; Geography; Polar vortex; Geology; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005747144,0.0002584787,0.0002239199,0.0003560037,0.0002360062,0.0008369412,0.0002727133,0.0005968661,0.003029194],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003257615,0.0001891099,0.0002571261,0.0003233794,0.0001584779,0.0007068851,0.0004317101,0.0005491452,0.0003634381],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000374843,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004014279,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01583163,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01891515,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998981,0.00001232783,0.000007107435,0.00003574359,0.00002057213,0.00002606639],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990448,0.0003661187,0.0001352404,0.0001097818,0.0002624882,0.00008142254],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001437543,0.0002343297,0.3503551,0.000143293,0.0004108156,0.0008225252,0.000329303,0.5334376,0.03908255,0.003189027,0.01193637,0.05862153],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007148883,0.000134895,0.3798683,0.00002796661,0.00007919253,0.0000680911,0.00013976,0.6078809,0.007358463,0.001725633,0.002605968,0.0000394234],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9916024,0.000140185,0.002588514,0.0005575563,0.0002420142,0.000008455523,0.0009994056,0.000293532,0.003567969],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9986046,0.00003446966,0.0002836432,0.0000372161,0.00003548254,0.000001536069,0.0006009741,0.00002118953,0.000380888],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01583163,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03147894,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.005628622834664265,"score_gpt":0.224551623289361,"score_spread":0.2189230004546968,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}