{"id":"W1966252479","doi":"10.1038/ngeo1698","title":"Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature Geoscience","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":370,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; University of Toronto","funders":"University of Toronto","keywords":"Predictability; Stratosphere; Climatology; Forecast skill; Troposphere; Sudden stratospheric warming; Environmental science; Atmospheric sciences; Precipitation; Atmospheric circulation; Meteorology; Geography; Polar vortex; Geology; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.000390138,0.000183669,0.0001584216,0.00001744227,0.00028511,0.0001206433,0.0005882084,0.0002172258,0.003698309],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001827175,0.0001541658,0.0001123877,0.0005938661,0.0002499993,0.0009591553,0.0002848134,0.0004210552,0.0008831809],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001279859,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003075487,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005755594,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001213978,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979209,0.00003197229,0.0001903721,0.0006201944,0.0006448764,0.0005917122],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999277,0.00009134349,0.00006854272,0.0003357064,0.00001783168,0.000209579],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004671594,0.0009974511,0.2725247,0.00008007545,0.00004520226,0.00005393204,0.007241277,0.00502125,0.6120252,0.004598361,0.0151742,0.08219165],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001860697,0.0004702408,0.7749714,0.0001637093,0.00007984864,0.00007192424,0.001572921,0.1454951,0.01705005,0.03438453,0.02112346,0.002756123],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9823871,0.00004457273,0.002938768,0.0004817295,0.0004714046,0.0003167444,0.000006086185,0.00007627395,0.01327735],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9911432,0.00000699173,0.006182159,0.001019167,0.00004329441,0.00003930472,0.000004353687,0.00001079441,0.001550718],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5949752,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998947,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.005628622834664265,"score_gpt":0.224551623289361,"score_spread":0.2189230004546968,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}