{"id":"W1970329847","doi":"10.1175/2009bams2778.1","title":"Decadal Prediction","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","topic":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":759,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Sight Research UK; Office of Science; National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Natural Environment Research Council; U.S. Department of Energy; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Environmental science; Climatology; Meteorology; Geology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004260001,0.0001219588,0.000264704,0.00000960031,0.0002115087,0.00001390061,0.0003954335,0.00005937256,0.004042685],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001945769,0.00006452062,0.0003329745,0.0002838957,0.0005304659,0.00001582883,0.00002117953,0.0002031604,0.000078875],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000004662405,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001105585,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002216991,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000004861749,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987196,0.0002181225,0.0002676135,0.0002333971,0.0002904436,0.0002708359],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990781,0.0003282081,0.0002172531,0.0002443714,0.00003545226,0.00009660151],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004011962,0.0002784563,0.6713864,0.000008580175,0.0001219491,0.00000265772,0.0001876365,0.03235148,0.001979461,0.001717782,0.05366332,0.2379011],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001470384,0.0006833758,0.96465,0.000001796226,0.00002160515,0.00000237259,0.00004860735,0.001981182,0.00004971739,0.005397279,0.02693508,0.00008192583],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9823945,0.0001972265,0.0003257117,0.006695843,0.00009416721,0.0001553379,0.00004112937,0.00006238144,0.01003369],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9864034,0.00004480957,0.006010448,0.007236142,0.00008532852,7.628706e-7,0.000009330643,0.000001362446,0.0002083989],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2932637,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9968678,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01487565114134142,"score_gpt":0.2201591894684767,"score_spread":0.2052835383271353,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}