{"id":"W1970329847","doi":"10.1175/2009bams2778.1","title":"Decadal Prediction","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","topic":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":759,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Sight Research UK; Office of Science; National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Natural Environment Research Council; U.S. Department of Energy; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Environmental science; Climatology; Meteorology; Geology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00232805,0.000834574,0.0004641929,0.001784273,0.0006404503,0.003008822,0.001169766,0.0006059458,0.03607092],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01073552,0.0002490539,0.0008229712,0.002928928,0.0003251679,0.003015362,0.001712837,0.001847298,0.01028362],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001155042,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001827325,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01071751,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007550384,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991664,0.0001422228,0.00006597928,0.0002631493,0.0002714485,0.00009081041],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9963282,0.000747085,0.0004474307,0.0007348953,0.001555748,0.0001866526],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002860895,0.00009581466,0.04643468,0.0004447523,0.0001539009,0.0001372821,0.0005840349,0.04818223,0.0008447123,0.1241803,0.2471813,0.5314749],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007035638,0.0001307021,0.04349717,0.0005040711,0.0001403328,0.000224751,0.0007860916,0.1277073,0.002512336,0.139001,0.6852678,0.0001581296],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.06619673,0.009965979,0.4508808,0.01531528,0.009151298,0.0004898884,0.07434861,0.01182286,0.3618286],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.663556,0.01115676,0.1184363,0.003396272,0.002522117,0.0007537546,0.0843574,0.003674344,0.1121471],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.03607092,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1206692,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01487565114134142,"score_gpt":0.2201591894684767,"score_spread":0.2052835383271353,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}