{"id":"W1970698587","doi":"10.1126/science.1157525","title":"Ancient Permafrost and a Future, Warmer Arctic","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science","topic":"Climate change and permafrost","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":159,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Alberta; University of Toronto; Geological Survey of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Permafrost; Subarctic climate; Arctic; Physical geography; Environmental science; Global warming; Climate change; Climatology; Cryosphere; Geology; Oceanography; Sea ice; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002628511,0.00008712728,0.00008258036,0.00009055922,0.0006252101,0.00006055123,0.0002095737,0.00002291888,0.003213828],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00001699788,0.00006530354,0.00001951975,0.0005074558,0.0008231332,0.0003756068,0.00002001064,0.00007462202,0.0003452249],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000004886251,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007858762,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00062389,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001234416,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988796,0.00001185483,0.00009178269,0.0002984674,0.0003456502,0.0003726447],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995227,0.00002829387,0.0000266522,0.0001570353,0.0000489732,0.0002163177],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000005952248,0.000006882987,0.9917855,0.000008254941,7.266667e-7,0.00002504813,0.001404413,0.000004981156,0.001625916,0.00002494026,0.0004534948,0.004653852],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009121351,0.00004611327,0.9596164,0.000004383179,0.00000246841,0.0002270305,0.0002916772,0.0007991538,0.0001499783,0.00005009767,0.03861367,0.0001077778],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9920452,0.001891809,0.000002228334,0.000647719,0.0005031716,0.00007102045,0.000253945,0.00002066317,0.004564229],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9967304,0.001137505,0.00011306,0.001458963,0.0003022704,6.024327e-7,0.00007199792,0.000001600971,0.0001835348],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03816017,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9976974,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03349148908924085,"score_gpt":0.2343507801782205,"score_spread":0.2008592910889797,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}