{"id":"W1980154793","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-14-00277.1","title":"Evaluation of Submonthly Precipitation Forecast Skill from Global Ensemble Prediction Systems","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Monthly Weather Review","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":145,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Goddard Space Flight Center; Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux","keywords":"Climatology; Forecast skill; Predictability; Madden–Julian oscillation; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Precipitation; Environmental science; Meteorology; Geography; Mathematics; Geology; Statistics; Convection","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003297737,0.000540508,0.0004592836,0.0007378451,0.0001937158,0.0006260092,0.0002810251,0.0004627527,0.0005670821],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00686849,0.0001483915,0.0003496176,0.0005729902,0.0001467746,0.0007065692,0.0005691737,0.0004048877,0.00009461695],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000316461,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004046302,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.009861321,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00894891,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994971,0.000182865,0.00004955112,0.00008792779,0.0001287967,0.00005371086],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9958727,0.002671186,0.0003770101,0.0003120648,0.0006098112,0.0001571591],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001032483,0.0003190986,0.3585726,0.00006563436,0.0006595749,0.0001587852,0.0001320272,0.5486683,0.004576983,0.0003741241,0.0007687509,0.08467166],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002274139,0.0003089655,0.07675757,0.000007791034,0.00005162002,0.00001927084,0.00003713961,0.9203143,0.002130624,0.0001829061,0.0001494144,0.00001766277],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9936556,0.00007992853,0.005184485,0.0000539493,0.00001949441,0.00001410664,0.000317191,0.0001037766,0.0005715785],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9976859,0.00002610225,0.00169263,0.00000936063,0.00001046694,0.000006339429,0.0004756366,0.000005942153,0.00008767485],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.009861321,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01960784,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07586057011350779,"score_gpt":0.2975069099725899,"score_spread":0.2216463398590821,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}