{"id":"W1980163634","doi":"10.1023/a:1008713823410","title":"Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices","year":2000,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Computational Economics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":44,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; Johns Hopkins University","keywords":"Heteroscedasticity; Economics; Econometrics; Rational expectations; Incentive; Production (economics); Commodity; Microeconomics; Persistence (discontinuity); Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000500896,0.00008467851,0.000211378,0.00004425586,0.0001297921,0.00003963066,0.000268002,0.00003944006,0.001242535],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00002784246,0.0000859661,0.00009959459,0.0000750286,0.0001101334,0.0001419269,0.00003418185,0.00008517235,0.00006353392],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004774466,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002445863,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00004439604,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001668417,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999159,0.00001142634,0.0004786626,0.0002103888,0.00001703018,0.0001235093],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992641,0.0002238502,0.0002443529,0.000206948,0.00002538019,0.00003537779],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004300806,0.0001166395,0.1980701,0.00003326689,0.00009266841,4.187642e-7,0.001242879,0.1039251,2.681984e-7,0.6838467,0.0004809023,0.01214818],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001647212,0.0000166515,0.07589351,0.000003370542,0.000002134346,0.000002129792,0.00006018129,0.7730221,7.182635e-7,0.1380301,0.0127084,0.00009598092],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9445539,0.0002017779,0.003650467,0.0005738502,0.0001185276,0.00009775257,0.0001999562,0.00001202278,0.05059174],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9968728,0.00007399413,0.002509192,0.0002214693,0.00004086171,0.000006072253,0.00003599704,0.000007878896,0.0002317733],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6690971,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996704,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04385446549105314,"score_gpt":0.2169523053526353,"score_spread":0.1730978398615822,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}