{"id":"W1991924918","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2008.01.064","title":"Prediction intervals for future records","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Statistics & Probability Letters","topic":"Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":44,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"National Atmospheric Research Laboratory; National Center for Atmospheric Research","keywords":"Mathematics; Sequence (biology); Statistics; Distribution (mathematics); Random variable; Mathematical analysis","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002967703,0.0001683803,0.0002247466,0.00003990925,0.0003013751,0.0000255328,0.0001477401,0.00007191263,0.000254819],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001647767,0.0001649175,0.00007874803,0.0001506769,0.000230037,0.00008295839,0.00002553606,0.0001417264,0.00004271433],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001475463,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005469296,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000007094209,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001285408,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985587,0.00007303933,0.0005279651,0.0003387473,0.0002380475,0.0002635262],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998235,0.0008704707,0.0001484524,0.0003602908,0.0002662863,0.0001194795],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002366871,0.000130633,0.0004218691,0.0001268346,0.00001856065,0.000001225829,0.0001903913,0.000001694961,0.0001542185,0.8132399,0.1836879,0.00200309],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004644905,0.00006667653,0.01369053,0.00001431627,0.00004833333,0.00001440877,0.00001099681,0.00232667,0.0001167512,0.9736447,0.009419889,0.0001822632],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.0180415,0.000004523886,0.9691024,0.003584838,0.0003080647,0.001000882,0.007481308,0.0001990152,0.000277442],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.03952283,0.000007290148,0.9577125,0.0008486126,0.0002755384,0.000544307,0.0009023733,0.00002601705,0.000160508],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.174268,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6725139,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1093437393751823,"score_gpt":0.3395956389341372,"score_spread":0.230251899558955,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}