{"id":"W1995039436","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.12.002","title":"Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Ocean Modelling","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":63,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University; TransCanada (Canada)","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network","keywords":"Storm surge; Surge; Environmental science; Meteorology; Lead time; Climatology; Ensemble average; Flooding (psychology); Coastal flood; Forecast period; Lead (geology); Ensemble forecasting; Allowance (engineering); Storm; Geology; Geography; Oceanography; Operations management; Production (economics); Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00008364798,0.00007502337,0.0001382214,0.00003234086,0.00009083102,0.00002139338,0.00007413719,0.00002693357,0.00002598821],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00002093579,0.00005261217,0.00001590744,0.0000644422,0.00003397636,0.00004737582,0.000005229095,0.00005816993,0.000002347093],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000004303119,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00006386855,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.2080829,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.4191924,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999265,0.00002008655,0.0001203262,0.0001705411,0.0001926421,0.0002313798],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995132,0.0001920394,0.00002443936,0.00008261579,0.00003723183,0.0001504387],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001835761,0.000006946515,0.8519588,0.0000773876,0.0000108635,0.000003164367,0.00006327157,0.1379408,0.00002184947,0.0001256424,0.0003332491,0.009274525],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002171692,0.0004991328,0.1158277,0.00003726124,0.00001609972,0.00000543458,0.00004018723,0.8818635,0.00007158049,0.0003756204,0.00093883,0.0001075372],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9331603,0.00003942496,0.06623349,0.00007855032,0.00004007396,0.0001219703,0.00003875498,0.000009947305,0.0002774978],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9975541,0.00001050313,0.00222841,0.00003358649,0.0000664987,5.017118e-7,0.00003353924,0.000003622365,0.0000691926],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7439227,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7971906,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01674689103394248,"score_gpt":0.2004509767525559,"score_spread":0.1837040857186134,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}