{"id":"W1995039436","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.12.002","title":"Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Ocean Modelling","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":63,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University; TransCanada (Canada)","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network","keywords":"Storm surge; Surge; Environmental science; Meteorology; Lead time; Climatology; Ensemble average; Flooding (psychology); Coastal flood; Forecast period; Lead (geology); Ensemble forecasting; Allowance (engineering); Storm; Geology; Geography; Oceanography; Operations management; Production (economics); Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000270292,0.0006126401,0.0003378812,0.0005079359,0.0006272685,0.000576064,0.0008429965,0.0003181178,0.001633738],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001092665,0.0003052165,0.0004042697,0.001078894,0.000186685,0.0002913561,0.0003150654,0.0005588674,0.0002026936],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.004505466,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.009510368,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9560225,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9656001,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998814,0.000008317493,0.000006597913,0.00002758954,0.00004637444,0.0000297451],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994178,0.0001158872,0.00005036873,0.00002988737,0.0003313796,0.00005475474],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001334455,0.0000590128,0.03402475,0.00003752671,0.00006669715,0.00008301996,0.00003289673,0.9387009,0.000577733,0.0004284812,0.004991829,0.02086388],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001742014,0.00001078553,0.01164628,0.000003049907,0.000008191506,0.000005432642,0.00001770074,0.9875997,0.0002238359,0.00007744545,0.0003823413,0.000007732947],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9724401,0.0003005005,0.006762471,0.0003168879,0.0000567018,0.00004920731,0.01383448,0.0006951223,0.005544496],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9834367,0.0001749607,0.004635687,0.00002336259,0.00001011191,0.0000209361,0.009437772,0.00002917086,0.002231374],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0439775,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0884729,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01674689103394248,"score_gpt":0.2004509767525559,"score_spread":0.1837040857186134,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}