{"id":"W1995746858","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9353.2007.00343.x","title":"Alpaca Lies? Speculative Bubbles in Agriculture: Why They Happen and How to Recognize Them","year":2007,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Review of Agricultural Economics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"University of British Columbia; Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics","keywords":"Agriculture; Economics; Agricultural economics; History","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00157811,0.0002857021,0.00095497,0.00009320973,0.00005376295,0.00006851539,0.0002786691,0.0001312764,0.0001071346],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002664046,0.000214616,0.0001948178,0.0002761979,0.00004290619,0.0003162879,0.0001441061,0.0001847053,0.00003630088],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001805076,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001126053,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002309747,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008932258,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981356,0.00002980662,0.0009076937,0.0005328096,0.00003244383,0.0003616695],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986975,0.000149242,0.0006360665,0.0002708479,0.00008059567,0.0001658073],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00017318,0.0005708641,0.5155329,0.00886469,0.0006108836,0.00001096138,0.002253519,0.00008923986,0.000310741,0.4130682,0.01962473,0.0388901],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007803428,0.0001625901,0.8511895,0.002272475,0.00003610411,0.00003592034,0.0005737924,0.0004273026,0.0001594068,0.02114262,0.1221166,0.001103364],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.937423,0.01840422,0.0001187042,0.005154515,0.0001841515,0.001057215,0.000219985,0.00002008876,0.03741815],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9179805,0.07785986,0.002277399,0.001104291,0.0001218528,0.00002356499,0.0000755505,0.00001867915,0.0005382932],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3919256,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8751787,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02537029736641823,"score_gpt":0.2200684710886084,"score_spread":0.1946981737221901,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}