{"id":"W1996155419","doi":"10.1175/2009waf2222170.1","title":"Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Weather and Forecasting","topic":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Extratropical cyclone; Climatology; Weather Research and Forecasting Model; Global Forecast System; Environmental science; Tropical cyclone forecast model; Meteorology; Mesoscale meteorology; Cyclone (programming language); Probabilistic logic; Geography; Tropical cyclone; Statistics; Geology; Computer science; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004067643,0.0005578543,0.0005050354,0.0005619949,0.0005413814,0.0008356391,0.0006801682,0.0004234358,0.0008855112],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007280664,0.0002822942,0.0006209535,0.0006016188,0.0002315223,0.001281302,0.0006351945,0.0006795155,0.0002185515],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000681287,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001534197,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.08244558,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07499806,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988217,0.0003873653,0.000118584,0.000239229,0.0003111324,0.0001220053],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9963303,0.000932775,0.0004053862,0.0007927495,0.001334333,0.000204506],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004162903,0.0002484546,0.4045835,0.00006999207,0.0004668112,0.0001872188,0.0001123143,0.5413079,0.006208721,0.001229812,0.003683422,0.04148547],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007206745,0.0001130231,0.1234964,0.0000201616,0.00004730601,0.00003563833,0.0000856776,0.8703016,0.003993684,0.0003850651,0.001416662,0.00003277991],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9862855,0.0001083903,0.006924153,0.0001831436,0.00008808031,0.00005470586,0.002789694,0.0004476886,0.003118553],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9937394,0.0000299639,0.002998144,0.00003186721,0.00001818968,0.00002049997,0.00288587,0.00003266853,0.0002432653],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08244558,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1639314,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06816279197303264,"score_gpt":0.2244344192317736,"score_spread":0.156271627258741,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}